Critical Minerals ’26: Copper Demand, Substitution, and the Future of Processing

Critical Minerals ’26, the second in the series, is shaping up very well, with abstracts already submitted covering a broad range of critical minerals, including both recycling and primary processing routes.

Copper remains one of the most important critical minerals. Modern society is deeply dependent on it, as it sits at the centre of how we generate, transmit, and use electricity and heat. It is essential for electric grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, data centres, and emerging AI infrastructure. Electrification alone significantly increases copper intensity, electric vehicles typically using two to three times more copper than conventional petrol vehicles. At the same time, grid expansion and the rapid growth of AI-driven data centres are adding sustained, long-cycle demand (see also posting of 22 September 2025).

While forecasts vary, the overall direction is clear; copper demand is expected to continue rising annually in the near term. Longer-term projections indicate a substantial structural supply gap unless new mining capacity is brought online at an accelerated pace. However, supply is increasingly constrained by declining ore grades, long development timelines for new mines, often 10 to 20 years, ESG-related delays, and operational disruptions due to mine outages.

We are pleased to welcome Martin Lynch to his first MEI Conference. The son of the legendary Alban Lynch, Martin will present a thought-provoking paper arguing that substitution with aluminium may represent the most effective response to looming global copper shortages. He will highlight evidence suggesting that, of the copper consumed globally in 2023, approximately 70% could have been replaced by alternatives, including aluminium wiring, cabling, and tubing, without significant performance penalties. He will further argue that the principal barrier to substitution is not technical feasibility, but rather copper’s entrenched reputation for quality and the reluctance of manufacturers and consumers to adopt alternative materials, even in applications such as building wiring, air conditioning heat exchangers, and renewable energy cabling, where substitutes have been shown to perform effectively.

The conference will also feature two high-profile keynote lectures. Professor Chun-Xia Zhao of the University of Adelaide will explore whether peptides could enable a new mineral processing paradigm (see posting of 8th September 2025). Professor Jacques Eksteen of Curtin University will discuss circular hydrometallurgy approaches aimed at more sustainable processing of critical minerals (see posting of 9 November 2025).

Finally, we extend our congratulations to Professor Eksteen, who was awarded the 2026 Alan Taylor Award for Innovation in Metallurgical Processing at the annual ALTA Conference awards dinner earlier this month.

#CriticalMinerals26