The Processing Challenge Behind the Critical Minerals Boom

Critical minerals underpin the technologies driving the next wave of industrial transformation, from AI data centres and electrified transport to renewable energy and defence systems. But while demand is accelerating, mineral processing capacity and supply diversification are struggling to keep pace. For mineral processing this widening gap presents both risk and opportunity.

Between 2024 and 2040, global demand for critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements (REEs) is forecast to grow 1.5 times, from 35 million tonnes to over 52 million tonnes. This surge reflects the material intensity of the technologies powering decarbonisation and digitisation. Electric vehicles alone can require up to six times more minerals than internal combustion engine vehicles, including over twice the copper content. Likewise, renewable power systems, particularly wind and solar, are far more mineral-intensive than natural gas-fired plants.

By 2040, clean-tech applications could represent over 40% of total mineral demand, up from around 25% today. As grid-scale storage, electric transport, and AI infrastructure expand, copper, lithium, and REEs will be among the most strategically significant feedstocks. The question for mineral processors is whether the industry can scale up efficiently enough to meet these demands without compromising environmental or economic viability.

While new exploration and mining projects are essential, a recent report speculates that a major supply of critical minerals may be hiding in plain sight in many metals mines. Researchers found that U.S. metal mines already contain large amounts of critical minerals that are mostly going unused. Recovering even a small fraction of these byproducts could sharply reduce dependence on imports for materials essential to clean energy and advanced technology. In many cases, the value of these recovered minerals could exceed the value of the mines’ primary products. The findings point to a surprisingly simple way to boost domestic supply without opening new mines.

For copper, ore grade decline is already eroding output efficiency. Even as demand continues to climb, mined supply could peak before 2030, leading to a projected 33% gap between supply and demand by 2035. This places immense pressure on concentrators and smelters to extract more from lower-grade ores while maintaining recovery rates and controlling energy use. Advanced flotation chemistry, sensor-based ore sorting, and hydrometallurgical innovations may play a critical role in sustaining output.  MEI’s Process Mineralogy’26 aims to address some of these aspects from a mineralogical and geometallurgical perspective.  

Lithium processing faces similar constraints. While new spodumene and brine projects are emerging, the step from raw concentrate to battery-grade lithium carbonate or hydroxide remains a key limiting factor. Global lithium demand could rise from 1.2 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2024 to as much as 3.3 million by 2030, with a potential 38% shortfall by 2035. Expanding refining and conversion capacity, especially outside China, is now central to supply security.

REEs are another case study in processing dependency. Although geologically abundant, they are technically challenging to separate and refine due to their similar chemical properties and environmental management requirements. China currently dominates 91% of REE refining and 94% of magnet manufacturing. Recent export restrictions on REE magnets and materials have further highlighted the risks of single-country dependency, underscoring the need for alternative processing hubs and cleaner extraction technologies. The graphic below shows Europe's dependence on China for its supply of critical minerals

China's dominance on critical minerals supply to Europe
Source: Visual Capitalist

And the graphic below shows China's share of global production of critical minerals

Source: Visual Capitalist

There are other causes for concern. South Africa, for instance,  produces 37% of the world's manganese but its last remaining manganese smelting operation is at risk of closure as surging electricity costs continue to batter energy-intensive industries, raising fresh concerns over job losses and the country’s industrial competitiveness.

As these challenges intensify, forums for technical collaboration and knowledge exchange are becoming vital. Events such as MEI’s Critical Minerals ’26: Processing and Recycling play a crucial role in uniting researchers, plant operators, technology developers, and policymakers to address precisely these bottlenecks. By spotlighting advances in beneficiation, hydrometallurgy, and recycling, the conference provides a global platform for developing the next generation of processing solutions essential to secure, sustainable mineral supply chains.

Alongside new mining and processing projects, recycling of critical minerals is emerging as an essential but underdeveloped pillar of supply. Recovering valuable elements from end-of-life batteries, electronics, and renewable infrastructure could reduce dependency on virgin mining and help close material loops.

However, recycling critical minerals presents unique metallurgical challenges. Many technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries and permanent magnets, are designed for performance rather than disassembly. Materials are often tightly bonded, chemically complex, or present in trace quantities, making recovery inefficient with conventional processes. For example, lithium recovery from spent batteries remains below 50% in most current hydrometallurgical flowsheets, and separation of REEs from magnet alloys is both energy- and reagent-intensive.

Developing economically viable recycling processes will require the same level of metallurgical innovation seen in primary production. Pyro- and hydro-metallurgical hybrid approaches, selective leaching, and solvent extraction tailored to complex feedstocks are all areas of active research. For processors, integrating recycled feed into existing smelters or refineries could become a strategic advantage, helping balance supply while reducing the carbon footprint of production.

Critical Minerals ’26 is set to be a focal point for this kind of innovation, highlighting not only advances in recycling flowsheets but also the integration of secondary materials into conventional processing infrastructure. As recycling becomes an indispensable component of supply chain resilience, the discussions and case studies shared at the conference are expected to influence both industry strategy and policy direction.

Governments are increasingly aware that processing, not just mining, determines strategic autonomy. The race to electrify and digitise the global economy begins, and could stall, at the processing stage. Without sufficient refining, conversion, and recycling capacity, even the most promising ore bodies will not translate into resilient supply chains for batteries, power grids, or AI infrastructure.

For mineral processors, this decade represents a defining moment. Expanding global capacity, improving recovery efficiencies, and developing circular, lower-impact processing routes will determine not just profitability but the pace of the energy transition itself. As the sector seeks pathways forward, Critical Minerals ’26 stands as a pivotal forum for collaboration, bridging research and practice to accelerate the innovations that will define the future of critical mineral processing.

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