Thursday, 2 December 2021

November update: Covid rages in Europe; a worrying new variant and the effectiveness of masks

Coronavirus is still rampant.  The World Health Organisation is very worried about Covid-19 raging throughout Europe, with protests against new restrictions taking place in many countries as cases rise, and Austria is currently in full lockdown. 

Most of the earlier restrictions have been removed in the UK, but last week flights to many southern African countries were cancelled due to a worrying new heavily mutated strain, Omicron, reportedly originating in Gauteng, South Africa. Were the UK and other rich nations morally wrong in vaccinating as many of their populations as possible, rather than distributing the vaccines to the poorer countries of the world? "We are not safe until everyone is safe" has become a mantra, and maybe Covid will be back to bite us.

Wearing a mask is the most effective way in which the public can curb Coronavirus cases, a study has found. Global research has found that masks can slash incidences of infection by 53%. The first systematic review of its kind, published in the British Medical Journal, has found that non-pharmaceutical measures, such as mask-wearing, social distancing and handwashing, are all effective at keeping infection numbers down. Researchers at Monash University in Australia and the University of Edinburgh found that wearing masks was the most effective of the three and have called for their use alongside vaccines.

Prior to the last day of the month, when face coverings became a legal requirement again in shops and public transport, they were not mandatory in England, although they were in many countries in Europe. The UK Government guidelines had stated that "Face coverings are expected and recommended in indoor spaces where you come into contact with people you do not normally meet".  Not everyone abided by this guideline, but many did, in deference to other people.

So why did our embarassment of a Prime Minister not set an example? His main contribution to COP26 (posting of 15 November) was an excruciating speech to delegates imploring them to believe that the UK was not a corrupt country, but he perhaps gained the most media coverage by sitting next to the 95-year old Sir David Attenborough, while not wearing a mask.

An alert PM with Sir David Attenborough on his left

But worse than this, in the following week he appeared maskless on a hospital visit, where the advice to visitors is to keep visits to a minimum, and wear masks when entering the hospital. It's hard to be clearer than this, and any sensible person would agree that this not only applies to the act of entering the hospital, but also of being in the hospital. So why was Johnson not wearing a mask during his visit; all the doctors and nurses were wearing masks. It’s completely incomprehensible behaviour from this bumbling buffoon, surely the most egregious (word of the year apparently) prime minister in Britain's history, leading a government of inept weaselly sycophants.

Spineless government ministers, even the health secretary Sajid Javid, defended his hospital visit, saying that he followed the rules! Even if he had followed all the rules, which seems highly doubtful, why did he not go beyond the rules, setting an example, knowing full well that he would be photographed? Johnson said that he only took his mask off for about 30 seconds, but reports from the hospital suggest that he was asked 3 times to wear a mask.  More of his lies!

Spot the bare-faced liar in the Commons

According to a report early in the month in the i weekend newspaper, there are three Whitehall scenarios for when the public can forget about Covid-19. The paper says that an optimistic prediction will see the virus become routine in late 2022 or 2023, with the likeliest situation being that the world will escape the shadow of Covid in 2023-2024. The highly unlikely and most pessimistic forecast estimates mass infections until 2026, the paper adds. But this was all before the emergence of the Omicron variant.

In view of all this, we feel that MEI has probably made the right decision in making our next 3 conferences in 2022 online events, with the hope of running Process Mineralogy '22 as a hybrid at the end of the year.

@barrywills

2 comments:

  1. From what I gather, India did well in the development and production of vaccines--also gave to many countries. In fact in India there are no public demonstrations resisting the jab while in some countries---.all from media; I might be wrong.
    It looks each country and the Leaders have got their own perceptions but all want the "normalcy" at the earliest.
    Barry, you have done and doing your best on Conferences. I must compliment your periodic Blogs--hope for a better future on technical conferences.

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  2. Good review of the current Covid situation Barry. I think we will have to wait another couple of weeks before it is clear what the impact of the omicron strain will be on transmission, virulence and vaccine effectiveness. Although there is much anxiety about this, and some over-reaction e.g., blanket travel bans on certain countries when it is clear that the horse has already bolted, I think we are now in a classic situation of "hope for the best and prepare for the worst". As a counterpoint it is entirely possible that transmission is more rapid, but disease severity less, while vaccines will still offer a sound level of protection. Time will tell: we will know by the end of this month. But one thing is clear: "politics" (politically motivated thought, speech and action/inaction) constitutes a powerful variable that influences outcomes: in the UK the "Boris Johnson effect" (as you illustrated), and in the USA where "red states" are now experiencing Covid mortality rates 2-3 times higher that of "blue states". We do live in interesting times.

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