Flotation '21: Day 4 update

Thursday 11th November

Circuits and plant practice was the theme of today's presentations, which got off to a fine start with a keynote lecture from Associate Professor Kym Runge, Group Leader of the SMI-JKMRC, University Of Queensland, Australia. Kym showed how an important role of a site metallurgist is to diagnose reasons for problems in a flotation circuit and devise strategies to overcome these problems. 

Traditionally this has involved performing and analysing information from a flotation circuit survey. It is difficult to determine from this information alone definitive flotation mineral recovery mechanisms and strategies for circuit improvement. There are, however, new analytical and modelling techniques that can be used to complement traditional survey data. These techniques are able to determine the effect of mineralogy, surface chemistry and circuit design on flotation circuit recoveries and grades. They can suggest strategies for improvement which would not have been identified via a conventional circuit audit. Kym reviewed these new approaches and used an industrial example to demonstrate the type of conclusions that can be derived. 

There were 20 presentations in another long day (see programme and abstracts), seven of these by conference sponsors. The first was by Glencore Technology's Glenn Steiper, who highlighted the imperative to reduce concentrator CapEx and Opex while maintaining throughput and metallurgy. He believes that the launching of the Jameson Concentrator is a step in the right direction to address these challenges as it treats the required tonnes, but offers many significant environmental and economic advantages.

Glencore Technology celebrating the 30th Anniversary of the Jameson Cell
with Graeme Jameson at Flotation '19

Livia Faustino represented Vale Institute of Technology, Brazil at Flotation '19, but now she is Project Manager with sponsor Clariant, Brazil, and this morning described the reverse cationic flotation of silicates by adding ultrafine iron ore tailings to the conventional flotation feed.

Zeiss Microscopy is a sponsor of many MEI Conferences. Eddy Hill joined Zeiss in 2012 with a remit to develop automated analytical solutions for geoscientists and the mining Industry. He attended Process Mineralogy '12 and Process Mineralogy '14, but this was his first flotation event and in his presentation he discussed 3D Mineralogy–X-ray microscopy automated mineralogy for a flotation circuit, which was introduced only last week).

Earlier in the year we welcomed Metso Outotec as a sponsor of Sustainable Minerals '21, and although this will be the first time that the company has had the opportunity to sponsor a flotation conference since the merger of Metso and Outotec, they were regular sponsors of many MEI Conferences under the names of their individual companies. The merger was completed in July last year, forming a unique new company with leadership in sustainable minerals and metals processing and recycling technologies.  It was great to have representatives present three papers today.

Guillermo Bermudez, of Metso Outotec Canada, presented strategies to optimise and modernise existing flotation circuits; Danish Bilal, of Metso Outotec Finland discussed the effect of ore blending on flotation and prediction of metallurgical performance of blended feed in flotation by simulation; and Janne Suhonen, also from Finland showed how locked cycle test results can be predicted from kinetic flotation test data.

Canada's Woodgrove Technologies sponsored Flotation '19, but were unable to attend, so it was good to have a presentation from David Hatton, manager of flotation development at Woodgrove, who are sponsoring once again. Woodgrove’s Staged Flotation Reactors (SFR) and Direct Flotation Reactors (DFR) are low-footprint and cost-efficient flotation units that are claimed to achieve higher upgrading at similar recovery to conventional flotation cells. David described the application of a novel benchtop flotation reactor for greenfields scale-up and design of industrial SFR and DFR Circuits.

Complementing today's and tomorrow's presentations was a 2-hour live panel discussion on the future of flotation circuits and machines (posting of 9th August). Chaired by Dr. Peter Amelunxen, experienced practitioners from around the world shared their views, and took part in lively discussions initiated by conference delegates. 

It was a shame that Prof. Graeme Jameson was unable to join the panel, due to connectivity problems in Australia. I am sure he would have made a valuable contribution to the wide-ranging discussions.

It is difficult to summarise a 2-hour discussion in a few paragraphs, but it was clear that future flotation circuits are likely to be hybrids, a mix of conventional mechanical cells, which are still very effective in treating particles in the 25-200 micron range, and a new generation of alternative machines such as Hydrofloat and Novacell for coarse flotation and Concorde and Jameson cells for ultrafine recovery.

There have been many challenges over the last 40 years, feed grades now being lower than many old tailings grades, and developments have led to a remarkable increase in mechanical cell size, but it is felt that 600-700 m3 cells are probably the limiting size. 

Existing operations have been slow to adopt the new cell technologies, mainly due to the risk involved. Mechanical cells work, so there has not been a great deal of incentive to upgrade old circuits, and process control strategies have to be adapted to the new technologies.

But the innovative new cells are now being employed in new circuits, often supplementing mechanical machines for different duties. Even so many plants are having a hard time accepting equipment that they are not familiar with, and cannot be easily scaled up from laboratory test-work, as can traditional machines.

As the world strives for zero carbon emissions, effective flotation of a very wide range of particle size is of prime importance, whether this be achieved by 'universal' flotation machines or by a combination of the old and the new. It was felt that coarse particle flotation will increase in importance, as it can be regarded as an ore sorting preconcentration stage, reducing not only energy, but also water requirements.

The live panel discussion was recorded and is available on demand for the next 6 months, as are all the presentations this week, so it is not too late to register!

#Flotation21
@barrywills

Flotation '21: Day 3 update

Wednesday 10th November

The day started with a short session on reagents for PGM ores, with 4 presentations, not surprisingly from South Africa, the largest producer of platinum in the world by a significant margin, with a production of between 148 and 120 metric tons each year from 2010 to 2020. As with all the presentations, the abstracts are available for viewing via the conference website.

This session was followed by 6 presentations on fine particle flotation given by presenters from France, Germany, Japan, Norway and UK, with collaborations from co-workers in Brazil, Iran, Pakistan and South Africa.  The topics were wide ranging, including carrier flotation, eco-friendly surfactants for fines flotation, Positron Emission Particle Tracking, microbubbles and nanobubbles, and assisted dispersion by chemical and ultrasound in the flotation of iron ore slimes with a new amidoamine collector. 

In the first of the two afternoon sessions there was an eclectic array of 5 papers from Australia, Germany, Republic of Korea, UK and USA on modelling and simulation.  A very specialised session, with presentations on machine learning algorithms, regression algorithms, dynamic and particle-based models. All a bit over my head, but I was pleased to see Dr. Osvaldo Bascur making his MEI debut with a paper on Integrated Rock Processing Strategies on Net Metal Production and Flotation Recovery. Osvaldo, a consultant fellow with Seeq Advanced Analytics, USA, was a subject of one of my MEI interviews and he will be giving a keynote lecture at IntegratedMinPro '22 next June. 

This intense short session was followed by an unscheduled short break due to the conference's only no-show, so I took some time off to wander round the exhibition. There are 17 companies exhibiting, including MEI, and although a virtual booth can never be a substitute for a physical presence, it is a relaxing experience to "drop into" a booth, browse the brochures, watch videos and find out what the company is all about. If representatives from the company are available then a live meeting can be arranged. If not then all the representatives from the company are listed in the Meeting Hub, where invitations to connect can be made. Personally I found the exhibition to be a useful experience, but would welcome the views of exhibitors and delegates.

Back at the conference, the final session of the day was control and instrumentation, with eight presentations from Australia, Finland, Germany, South Africa and USA, including two from conference sponsors CiDRA Minerals Processing, USA and Festo, Germany, whose virtual booths I visited during the break.

The photo below shows the Festo booth at Flotation '19. On the right is Thomas Bertsch who, with his colleague Dr. Eckhard Roos, explained today how new automation concepts can be implemented in an existing overall automation system. 

CiDRA Minerals Processing are long time sponsors of the comminution series as well as flotation, but for Alessandra Castillo, who presented a paper today, this was only her 2nd MEI conference, having attended Flotation '19. She discussed how the biggest leaps in technology have historically occurred in the face of crises, and today is no exception. Over the past 18 months, every industry has been touched by the technological megatrends of intelligence, connectivity, and flexible automation. As a result, mining operations around the world finally value data as an asset and are prioritising technology that provides new knowledge for data driven decision-making.

Alessandra at Flotation '19 with her co-author today, Joe Felix (left)
of Felix Project Management and Consulting Services C.C., South Africa 

Other topics discussed in this long session were monitoring of flotation cells using drag sensors and other tools; control by real-time measurement; measurement of foam composition by ultrasonics; improving kinetics by acoustic sound; optimisation using on-line mineralogical data; measuring turbulence using electrical resistance tomography.

#Flotation21
@barrywills

Flotation '21: Day 2 update

Tuesday 9th November

Since the development of xanthates in the early 20th century, flotation reagents have been developed to treat virtually every known ore type, and there is a bewildering array. Reagent chemistry has adapted to treat increasingly lower grade and refractory deposits and the range of flotation is being extended via these new and enhanced reagents into the treatment of wastes, high-tech metals and rare earths, all contributing to the goal of the circular economy and today's 25 presentations looked at developments in reagents for sulphide and non-sulphide minerals.

There were 8 papers in the morning session on reagents for sulphide ores, dealing with the differential flotation of pyrite and arsenopyrite; the flotation behavior of enargite and chalcopyrite in sodium sulphite solution; the study of thionocarbamate and amyl xanthate collector adsorption on covellite and pyrite surfaces; and the impact of reagents on carbon management strategies in sulphide plants. The latter was presented by Dr Tarun Bhambhani, of conference sponsor Solvay Mineral Processing Chemicals, USA, who is seen 2nd right in the Solvay booth at Flotation '19.

Apart from conventional sulphide mineral reagents, there were some new developments. Selective flotation of copper and molybdenum, especially chalcopyrite and molybdenite is a continuing problem since the current NaHS process requires a closed system flotation plant because of hydrogen sulfide emission in acidic conditions. Dr. Hajime Miki, of Kyushu University, Japan, discussed recent developments for alternative additives to NaHS such as redox reagents.

The use of green and renewable chemicals represents an interesting approach to improve the sustainability and environmental friendliness of mining operations. Xanthates are a class of industrially used collectors which are produced from fossil raw materials and whose decomposition byproducts represent an environmental risk. Therefore, alternative collector chemistries should be found to reduce the environmental impact of flotation processes and avoid complex water cleaning systems. Dr. Robert Hartmann of Aalto University, Finland, described a study on the flotation of chalcopyrite using a cellulose-based collector, with promising results, and Edgar Shach of the Technical University Freiberg, Germany, introduced investigations on the working mechanism of the nitrile based sulfide collector Tecflote®, a new group of collectors for sulphide flotation. 

The biggest challenge in flotation has always been the selective concentration of non-sulphide minerals, and the list of such minerals continues to grow, 17 presentations being made in the very long afternoon session, where many innovations in reagent chemistry were introduced.

Dr. Wonder Chimonyo, of The University of Queensland, opened the session by examining the potential of new peptides as biocompatible alternatives to amine collectors in iron ore flotation, where they are conventionally used to float siliceous gangue minerals including quartz. The use of amines, however, produces major challenges such as high frothing propensity, toxicity and low selectivity.

Feliciana Ludovici, of the University of Oulu, Finland, also introduced new reagents for quartz flotation, cellulose- based chemicals, alternatives to traditional petroleum-based chemicals which pose a risk for the environment and human health. Dr Ted Nuorivaara, of Aalto University, Finland, also showed how utilising cellulose-based polymer-surfactant mixtures as frothers can improve the flotation recovery of Cu from flash smelting slags. 

Dr. Yan Foucaud, of Université de Lorraine, France, explained why the extraction of monazite from tailings is challenging, considering its low concentration and the presence of gangue minerals that behave similarly throughout flotation. His group has developed a new monazite flotation route using lanthanum ions to promote the adsorption of fatty acids onto monazite surfaces.

Dr Panagiotis Angelopoulos, of National Technical University of Athens, also looked at the development of novel green chemicals from renewable resources to overcome inherent problems arising from the use of classical collectors. In the study presented, the potential of substituting conventional collectors with lignin nanoparticles to produce apatite concentrate from low grade ore with considerable La and Ce content was investigated.

High grade phosphate deposits are increasingly rare nowadays, making the industry rely on more challenging carbonate-rich phosphate ores. The gangue minerals contained in this type of ore, notably calcite and dolomite, have similar surface properties rendering them hard to separate from apatite as the main phosphate mineral by flotation. Prof Lev Filippov of the Université de Lorraine described the evaluation of the performance of non-ionic reagents such as ethoxylated and branched fatty alcohols in the flotation of phosphate ore to enhance selectivity.

Dr Natalija Schwarzmayr, of conference sponsor Nouryon Surface Chemistry AB, Sweden, looked at phosphate esters as boosters in the direct flotation of apatite, while Manar Derhy, of the Mohammed VI Polytechnic University and Cadi Ayyad University, Morocco, described a different approach, using bio-based collectors for the selective flotation of phosphate ores: Flaxseed, Nigella, and Olive oils.

Nouryon at Flotation '19

There is a growing interest in microbes and their biological products (bioreagents) as reagents due to their adaptability, selectivity, and flexibility, and Yvonne Perocillo, of the Helmholtz-Institut Freiberg, Germany, looked at the potential for poly-γ-glutamic acid (PGA) and Marinobactins (MBS) as bioflotation reagents, PGA as a depressant in semisoluble salt type mineral systems in the case of calcite as a gangue in scheelite flotation and MBS as a chelating type collector in oxide flotation such as hematite.

Nahid Molaei of the University of Toronto also showed how bioreagents have potential in flotation, commercially available biopolymers having been successful in the treatment of clays in flotation, decreasing environmental problems that occur by using inorganic and organic reagents.

It has been a very long and interesting day with 3 short breaks, which included a networking session where we try to create the random meetings over a cup of coffee at a conference. Delegates who opted to take part were placed at random into a group of 3 participants for 5 minutes, after which they were moved to another group. No substitute for the real thing of course, but it would be good to have feedback from those who took part in this.

#Flotation21
@barrywills

Flotation '21: Day 1 update

Monday 8th November

Flotation '21 is the 10th in the MEI flotation series, and the first to be totally online. Although we would have liked to have been in Cape Town as originally scheduled, the need to go virtual has enabled many researchers and  operators, who would not have been able to travel to South Africa, to attend Flotation '21 from the comfort of their own homes and offices, and there are many new names on the list of the 256 delegates registered from 29 countries.

Jon Wills opened the conference this morning, welcoming the delegates, with a special mention to those entering the MEI fold from three new countries, Belarus, Dominican Republic and Panama, and thanking our consultant, Prof Jim Finch, and our sponsors for their loyal support.

It is now 117 years since Elmore's patent saved the mining industry from an existential crisis, and flotation has dominated the mining industry ever since. Many argue that there is nothing really new in flotation and that research is in many cases treading on old ground. While this might be true of many of the papers submitted to academic journals, Jon said that this week's focused timetable, which has been extended to five very full days, demonstrates that flotation continues to thrive and evolve and that there is much to report that is innovative.

This week's programme truly reflects the progressive evolution of flotation, the mining industry's most ubiquitous and important technology. As we move into the 4th Industrial Revolution and the era of electric cars and renewable energy, never before has there been such a demand on the supply of finite resources, and flotation will play a very important future role in the quest for a circular economy.

Sponsor Glencore Technology is featuring the Jameson Concentrator at the conference, and delegates were invited to enter a competition to guess the throughput of the Jameson Concentrator featured on the Glencore website. The prize was a US$2,000 voucher good for more than 270,000 hotels around the world, and following Jon's opening remarks, Glencore Technology's Marketing Manager Stephen Johnson announced that the winner of the prize was Dr. Diego Mesa, of Imperial College, UK. 

The inventor of the Jameson Cell, Prof. Graeme Jameson, is one of the great names in mineral processing, and to celebrate his 85th birthday this year Prof. Jim Finch opened the day by presenting a keynote lecture highlighting Prof. Jameson's life and work.

In Graeme's quest for a universal flotation machine to effectively treat coarse and fine particles, Jim first compared the performance of various machines, columns, mechanical and Jameson Cells and then examined the practical reasons for employing Jameson Cells. The first installation was at Mt. Isa Mines in 1989 to treat heavy media plant slimes and was hailed as a major breakthrough in column flotation technology, as efficient and productive as existing columns four times its size. Since then it has gone from strength to strength, and the latest installation is at Canada's New Britannia Mine, the first all-Jameson cell concentrator (posting of 7th April 2020).

Perhaps not as well known is another of Graeme's inventions, the Concorde Cell, which has been put into operation by Metso-Outotec at a nickel operation in Western Australia, and now Graeme is well under way with his quest for a universal flotation machine, with the NovaCell, which can recover mineral particles over a wide particle size range, using the concept of the high-shear aeration zone of the Concorde cell for ultrafine separation and a fluidised bed for coarse particle collection.

Graeme is an outstanding scientist, who has received many major awards and Jim was proud to present him with the IMPC Lifetime Achievement Award at the IMPC in Quebec in 2016.

Jim and Graeme in Quebec, 2016

The keynote got the conference off to an excellent start and was a great prelude to the day's 12 presentations on bubbles and froths, and to the panel discussion on the future research needs in flotation (see posting of 29th August). Chaired by Romke Kuyvenhoven, dynamic young researchers from around the world shared their views, and took questions from conference delegates.

There was very wide ranging and intense discussions, with very useful interaction with delegates via the Discussion Forum, which will be open for several days. We really appreciate the efforts that Romke and the panelists made, preparing the groundwork prior to the conference.

Topics discussed over the 2-hour session included the funding of research and how it differs around the world and in academia and industry. It was felt that collaboration between academia and industry is crucial, as there is no substitute for the level of knowledge that an industry partner can provide.

Not surprisingly, as COP26 is taking place in Glasgow this week there was much discussion on the environment and sustainability, and the need for innovation, coarse flotation being a priority to reduce energy consumption. 

Some of the delegates suggested that the speed of innovation could be increased by better access to the scientific literature to those outside of university libraries.  The classic expensive publishing houses like Elsevier, Wiley or Springer are already under pressure and open access is the key for sustainable research and is also what public funding sources are starting to demand more and more. It was also pointed out that industry associations, such as SME, AusIMM, SAIMM and others have got together to share  historical conference proceedings and publications to their members through the onemine.org platform.

How can we attract students to flotation was discussed at some length, and how do we get the public to understand the importance of mining and mineral processing? Where will the next generation of mineral processors come from? Possibly from China, as Zhiyong Gao said that there are 15,000 undergraduate mineral processing students at Chinese universities, with 800 staff!

The impact of Covid-19 was briefly discussed, and what will the new normal be like? Adrian Singh of GoldOre thinks that the current conference platform is great and that there is most definitely a place for it in the new normal. I agree and Flotation '23 will hopefully be face to face but with an online aspect as well.

The live panel discussion was recorded and is now available on demand for the next 6 months, as are all the presentations this week, so it is not too late to register!

#Flotation21
@barrywills

Unsettled: to what extent do humans contribute to climate change?

The 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) began this week, with an introduction by, among others, the People's Advocate Sir David Attenborough, who made an impassioned plea to world leaders to act now to avoid the approaching apocalypse. 

Climate change is a reality, no sane person can deny the evidence of that, but in terms of the cause of climate change, and how we should deal with it, is the science settled? There have been "heated" debates on the blog over the years, with eminent geologists, such as Australia's Prof. Ian Plimer arguing that the climate is changing solely due to natural phenomena (posting of 20th October 2009), while climate scientists such as the UK's Prof. Stephan Harrison argued to the contrary (posting of October 31st 2009), that the changes are solely due to human actions.

Who is right, who should we believe? There have been many books, mainly by psuedo-scientists, debunking global warming as a hoax, but not so many by respected scientists who can examine the science and its foibles and present coherent assessments.

I have had long discussions with Prof. John Ralston, the founding Director of the University of South Australia's Wark Institute, and a former South Australian Scientist of the Year (posting of 27th May 2014), and he shares my views about the need for an objective assessment of the various contributions to global warming, so I was pleased when he recommended a controversial new book which the author claims puts forward a balanced view of climate change and man's influence.

Unsettled: what climate science tells us, what it doesn't and why it matters, is a book published this year, and by an author, Steven Koonin, who has the right credentials, expertise and experience to ask the right questions and to give realistic answers.

Prof. Koonin is a leader in US science policy and former science advisor for the Obama administration. With more than 200 peer-reviewed papers in the fields of physics and astrophysics, scientific computation, energy technology and policy, and climate science, he was a professor of theoretical physics at Caltech, also serving as Caltech’s Vice President and Provost for almost a decade. He is currently a University Professor at New York University.

The earth's temperature arises from a delicate balance between warming sunlight and cooling heat radiation, which is disturbed by both human and natural influences, with greenhouse gases playing an important role. As everyone knows, CO2 is a potent greenhouse gas, and its concentration in the atmosphere has increased since 1750 from 280 parts per million (0.028%) to 0.0413% in 2021, and continues to rise by about 2.4 ppm every year. Although most of today's CO2 is natural, there is no doubt that this rise is, and has been, due to human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels. This CO2 added by humans over the past 250 years has increased the atmosphere's ability to impede heat and is exerting a growing warming influence on the climate, which Koonin fully acknowledges. He does not know of any expert who disputes that the rise of CO2 concentration over the past 250 years is almost entirely due to human activities. However, he feels that the human influence on temperature is physically small, and there are more powerful natural forces, such as volcanoes, the sun, deep ocean currents, driving the climate as well, and they illuminate the scientific challenge of understanding these natural influences well enough to confidently identify the climate response to human action. The real question is not whether the globe has warmed recently but rather to what extent this warming is being caused by humans.

The CO2 emitted by burning fossil fuels disrupts the balance of the great carbon cycle, since that carbon has been pulled out of the deep underground, where it was isolated from the natural processes.  Koonin says, however, that human-emitted CO2 is a relatively small add-on to the vast natural cycle of carbon moving among the earth's crust, oceans, plants and atmosphere.

According to Koonin, the study of climate and energy is the ultimate multidisciplinary activity, no single researcher is able to be an expert in more than two or three of its aspects. Usefully describing the earth's climate remains one of the most challenging scientific simulation processes there is. The multitude of climate models disagree with, or even contradict, each other, and he says that a vague "expert judgement" has sometimes been applied to adjust model results and obfuscate shortcomings. As such the science is insufficient to make useful projections about how the climate will change over the coming decades, much less what effect our actions will have on it. 

Koonin says that is has become de riguer for the media, politicians, and even some scientists, to implicate human influences as the cause of heat waves, droughts, floods, storms and whatever else the public fears. The on-the-scene reporting is powerful, and often moving, and our poor memories of past events can make "unprecedented" quite convincing. But he argues that the science tells a different story,  the World Meteorological Organisation saying in November 2020 that any single event, such as a severe tropical cyclone, cannot be attributed to human-induced climate change, given the current status of scientific understanding. He says that observations extending back over a century indicate that most types of extreme weather events don't show any significant change, some having actually become less common or severe.  There will be many unconvinced by this, as 2021 has been the hottest year ever recorded, with millions of people living with extreme temperatures and facing a growing threat of flooding or wildfires. 

Koonin stresses that open debate is the heart of the scientific process, and it is absurd that scientists should fear being labelled anti-science for engaging in it. William Hogan, Professor of global energy policy at Harvard Kennedy School has said that rather than an existential crisis we face a wicked problem that requires a pragmatic balancing of costs and benefits and feels that Koonin's book is essential reading and a timely breath of fresh air for climate policy. 

However, others have negative responses to the book. Bob Ward, the policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science finds that the book is based on a number of inaccurate and misleading claims, flawed studies, and cherry-picked information.

Gary Yohe, Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Emeritus, at Wesleyan University in Connecticut, writing in Scientific American, feels that Koonin is wrong and that the science is stronger than ever around findings that speak to the likelihood and consequences of climate impacts, and has been growing stronger for decades.

Dr. Mark Boslough, who has served on the Executive Committee of the American Physical Society Topical Group on the Physics of Climate, has strong criticism, saying that Koonin creates an illusion of arrogant scientists, biased media, and lying politicians – making them easier to attack. 

He asks why does Koonin think that unsettled questions in climate science are any kind of comfort when the consequences of doing nothing can be catastrophic, as predicted by Sir David at COP26? Exactly my feelings. As the degree of human influence on climate change is unsettled, we should assume the worst and make every attempt to phase out fossil fuels as soon as we can, bearing in mind that there must be a transition period when these fuels will be needed to build the new generation of electric vehicles and renewables. Even if Koonin is right, we must still do this, as fossil fuels are the world's major source of air pollution, one of the globe's biggest killers.

It won't be easy however. As Koonin states, the world will need much more energy in the coming decades. Today's global population of just under eight billion will grow to over nine billion by mid-century, with virtually all that growth occurring outside the developed world. Currently fossil fuels provide about 80% of the world's energy and this dominance is projected to persist through mid-century, although a strong growth in renewable sources will decrease the share of the world energy provided by fossil fuels to about 70%.

It will be interesting to see if anything significant comes out of COP26. Stronger international collaboration is required to achieve net zero emissions, and this might not be forthcoming. High emitting developing economies are expected to increase emissions significantly by 2030. China (the world's #1 emitter) and India (#3) are building coal-fired power stations that will double and triple their emissions respectively, and Russia (#4) also proposes investments that will increase its emissions substantially.

Koonin believes that due to the uncertainty the societal response will be to adapt to a challenging climate, and that adaption will very likely be effective. Only time will tell; the climate is changing, humans are playing a role, but our global energy needs are growing too.

It will be interesting to hear what blog readers think!

@barrywills

October update: are we heading for another lockdown, and will mining be mentioned at COP26?

Is the pandemic over, or are we just living an illusion?  This was the question we asked this month, with further restrictions lifted even though the UK had one of the highest rates of Covid infection in Europe, and the rates in Cornwall were increasing again to over the UK average. Britain has had no Covid restrictions for 3 months, longer than anywhere else in the developed world and hospital admissions are rising steadily, all the more worrying as England's hospitals are struggling to recruit staff, with tens of thousands of posts unfilled, the situation made particularly bad by a drop in recruits from Europe. 

Health Secretary Sajid Javid held firm against calls for immediate restrictions, and the Government is unlikely to consider enforcing its Plan B before mid-November, after the COP26 conference in Glasgow. Plan B involves the return of compulsory facemasks, working from home and the introduction of vaccine passports.

The Times, 21st October

Towards the end of the month Morocco banned flights to and from the UK because of Britain's rising number of Coronavirus cases, but relaxed travel restrictions earlier allowed Amanda and Richard to spend a week in Crete, and Jon and friends met up for a weekend in Dorset. And back in Cornwall, Barbara and I had our first visitors stay with us since the start of the pandemic. Even Boris Johnson managed to take a week off running the country, to holiday in Marbella.

Amanda and Richard in Crete, Jon and friends at Durdle Door, Dorset,
and visitors to Cornwall's submarine mines

Despite the worrying rise in infections, on the 2nd day of the month there was a crowded bar at the CSM Annual Dinner, the first since March 2019, where it was great to see how more and more women are pursuing careers in the mining industry.

Photo: Silje Lovstad

However, Covid has taken a secondary role this month, as other matters have dominated the news, notably the murder of a prominent Member of Parliament, and the acute shortage and high cost of gas, record fuel prices and cuts in benefits. The Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has promised that Britain will not run out of gas this winter, words that may come back to haunt him. Where is fracking when we need it? The north of England has huge reserves of shale gas, which cannot be exploited because of the "earthquake" fear.

The 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) began yesterday in Glasgow, with around 30,000 delegates, but without the attendance of the leaders of 2 of the top emitters of CO2, China (#1) and Russia (#4). Worrying times, as greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are higher than ever despite a drop in emissions due to coronavirus restrictions. Maybe feedback is kicking in, where the oceans release CO2 as the temperature increases?

Ahead of the meeting, the UK Government revealed its latest strategy to make the move to a virtually zero-carbon economy. The trillion pound green gamble includes grants for purchase of electric cars and for replacement of home gas boilers by heat pumps. Considering that, despite these grants, the purchasing costs will still be prohibitive for those with low incomes, it seems that the poor, via their taxes, will be subsidising the rich.

Johnson announced that all Britain's electricity will come from renewables, mainly wind, by 2035, a significant step towards the government's ambition to hit net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, a goal which I have questioned before:

Critical Metals and the UK's "Green Industrial Revolution" 
Just how energy efficient are wind turbines? 
Is Zero Carbon by 2050 attainable?
The real cost of using neodymium in wind turbines 

Last year 43% of the UK's energy was generated by renewables, 40% by fossil fuels, and the rest by nuclear. The new target will require significant growth, not only in offshore wind generation, but also in nuclear capacity and will mean a minimum quadrupling of offshore wind from the present level over the next decade. Considering how much raw material is needed to manufacture a single wind turbine (posting of 25 August 2019) is this all possible with current mining output? The stocks of copper for instance, one of the most critical metals, are at their lowest on the London Metal Exchange since the 1970s, driving the price to record levels by the middle of the month.

I wonder if mining will even be mentioned at COP26. The goals may be laudable but without investment in mining, not only in primary mining, but also in the the processing of secondary deposits, and the biggest challenge, recycling, it is unlikely that set targets will be achieved. I am sure that there will be calls to ban the use of fossil fuels, but the reality is that wind turbines need not only huge amounts of metals, they also require a great deal of energy to build them and to extract the raw materials, so in the transition period to 100% renewables fossil fuels will be needed, in the absence of sufficient nuclear energy.

There are many other potential sources of renewable energy apart from wind, for instance should more emphasis be placed on geothermal energy, a reliable, continuous source, of which there is much potential down here in Cornwall with its hot granite rocks?

November will be another worrying month, and as we now approach winter and infection and death rates continue to rise the future is still very much uncertain. 

"I'm fixing the obesity crisis via food shortages, the climate crisis via
fuel shortages and sorting the pension deficit by killing all the old people.
I just don't know what more I can do, Laura"
"The public are just ungrateful bastards, Prime Minister"

@barrywills