Is replacing copper with aluminium the most effective way to deal with the looming global copper shortages?

A series of recent studies by reputable organisations have all forecast significant global shortages of copper starting in the mid 2030s.

In a keynote lecture at Critical Minerals '26, Martin Lynch, of the University of Queensland, will argue that substitution is the likely remedy.

Martin will highlight three main points:

• Substitutes (including PEX piping, fibre optic cables, and aluminium tubes) supplied 40% of the global demand for copper over the past 50 years, during which there were two periods of shortage.
• Of the copper consumed globally in 2023, about 70% could have been replaced by substitutes (including aluminium wiring, cables and tubes) without significant negative impacts.
• The main barrier to using substitutes is copper’s reputation for quality, and the reluctance of manufacturers and consumers to trust substitute products (including in building wire, aircon HX and renewables cabling) even though they are proven to work just as well as copper.

According to the author, history has shown that the barriers to substitution tend to crumble quite quickly when shortages appear.

Martin Lynch is the son of the late Prof. Alban Lynch, the first Director of Australia's JKMRC. He graduated in 1982 as a BE (Chem) from the University of Queensland (UQ) and worked in a series of mining companies including Rio Tinto and Iluka Resources.  During that time he wrote Mining in World History, a book which traces the history of global mining from 1500 to the 1970s (posting of 13th July 2026).  

He changed career path in 2009, becoming the owner and manager of a renewables energy business.  This was sold in 2024, following which he began a PhD at UQ focusing on the use of substitutes for copper with the aim of managing forecast global copper shortages.

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