Why the supply of critical minerals is so critical

Critical Minerals '24, MEI's 1st International Symposium on the processing of critical minerals, will be held at the Vineyard Hotel, Cape Town, from November 14-15, immediately following Process Mineralogy '24. It is being organised by MEI in consultation with Prof. Alan Butcher of the Geological Survey of Finland and Prof. Jan Cilliers, of Imperial College, UK, and is sponsored by Promet101, AECI Mining Chemicals, and Capstone Copper. Our media sponsors are International Mining and Minerals Engineering and industry advocates are the Critical Minerals Association and the Coalition for Eco-Efficient Comminution (CEEC).

Critical minerals refer to a select group of elements and minerals that are vital for industrial processes and the production of high-tech goods. Their significance arises from their role in enabling various technologies that have become integral to contemporary life. Commonly cited examples of critical minerals include rare earth elements (REEs), lithium, cobalt, and graphite. 

The growing demand for critical minerals is primarily driven by the energy transition and the rapid expansion of technologies such as smartphones, electric vehicles, wind turbines, and solar panels. As societies transition towards cleaner and more sustainable energy solutions, the need for these minerals has intensified. 

Although efforts are being made to develop more sustainable mining and processing techniques, as the demand for critical minerals increases so do concerns about their environmental and social impact. The extraction of these minerals often involves practices that can harm ecosystems and local communities and as Ben Lepley points out in his excellent article in LinkedIn we must listen to the voices of protest, which is the role of responsible ESG. Having said that it is important that the non-mining community be made aware of the desperate need to ramp up critical minerals production if net zero is ever to be achieved, or even approached. 

So how are we doing? The table below paints a gloomy picture, showing that mining production would need to be considerably ramped up as there is physically not enough material at current extraction rates to produce one generation of renewables technology (which needs to be replaced every 20 years or so) and to phase out fossil fuels. A massive increase in supply of lithium would be needed to completely phase out petrol and diesel cars, and the most important metal in the quest for net zero, copper, would need the equivalent of 190 years supply at current mining rates. 

The reality is that the world is facing a dire future shortage of the metals and minerals required to make the transition to clean energy. Existing copper mines are suffering from declining feed grades while developing new mines is becoming more difficult due to social and environmental concerns and a lack of investment. 

At the UN's latest round of global climate talks, COP28, hosted on the first two weeks of this month, around 100 countries promised to treble the renewable energy the world uses by 2030. UN Secretary-General António Guterres announced his plan to set up a panel aimed to ensure the move from fossil fuels towards renewable energy is just, sustainable and benefits all countries. He said that the availability and accessibility of critical energy transition minerals is crucial to reach the goals set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

In terms of world energy production coal is still king, representing 35.4% of global generation in 2022, wind and solar combined amounting to only 11.7%.

Source https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/what-electricity-sources-power-the-world/

The UK has a particularly good record in aiming for net zero. Half a century ago 95% of the country's electricity was generated by coal, now it is less than 2%. I logged the sources of electricity generation to the UK grid over the last 3 weeks of October, and 29.5% was generated by fossil fuels and 39% by wind/solar. This seems impressive, but looking at generation on a daily basis tells a different story, as wind and solar are very much weather dependent, making their supply extremely erratic.

The overall picture is that we are a long way from achieving global net zero and that, unless the supply of nuclear energy is increased, fossil fuels will be needed for many years yet. The supply of critical minerals will also need to be massively increased and mineral processing will have an important role in this.

Critical Minerals '24  will explore innovative methods and flowsheets for processing critical minerals from primary and secondary sources and by recycling, particularly from waste electrical and electronic equipment, the most challenging aspect in aiming for a circular economy. Many electronic devices and products contain significant amounts of these minerals, making them potential sources for future supply. Researchers and industries are working on improving recycling technologies to extract critical minerals from discarded products, reducing the need for new mining activities.

So if you are working on innovative methods to extract critical minerals from primary and secondary sources, or by recycling, then we would very much like to see you in Cape Town next year to share your work and thoughts with like-minded people. We invite you to submit your abstracts via the online portal.

#CriticalMinerals24