The supply of critical minerals becomes increasingly critical

There was much talk of critical metals and minerals at Process Mineralogy '22 in Sitges last month, and in planning Process Mineralogy '24, which will be back in Cape Town, we are likely to run back to back with a 2-day conference on the recycling of these metals and minerals and the challenges imposed on mineral processing.

The list of 'critical minerals' is slowly expanding; until fairly recently copper was not classed as a critical metal, but it is one of the most important metals in the green transition, with more than 20 million tonnes consumed each year across a variety of industries. A recent report from S&P Global predicts the world’s appetite for copper will reach 53 million tonnes, on an annual basis, by mid-century. This is more than double current global mine production, according to the US Geological Survey.

Notably, growth in new copper supply capacity, from new mines, or expansions of existing projects, would unlikely be able to keep pace with the surge in demand, the study says. The International Energy Agency has estimated that it currently takes 16 years, on average, to develop a new mine, meaning that a new mine seeking permission today would not become productive in time to accommodate the demand spike. That leaves increases in capacity utilisation (output as a percentage of an existing mine's total capacity) and recycling as the main sources of additional supply, according to the study.

The world's biggest copper producer, Codelco in Chile, was well represented at Process Mineralogy '22 and a recent statement from the company warns that global shortages of the metal may reach eight million tonnes by 2032, as soaring demand continues to offset new project numbers. Maximo Pacheco, chairman of the board of Codelco, said at an industry conference that while a surplus is expected in the short term due to new projects in Chile, Peru, the DRC and China’s Tibet region, medium to long-term demand will eclipse supply further down the line.

Codelco delegates in Sitges

“Considering that some copper deposits are in the process of stopping production and that other projects are in the process of starting operations, it is estimated that the deficit will be almost eight million tonnes in 10 years,” Pacheco said at the Asia Copper Week conference in Singapore.

Based on studies conducted by Codelco, Pacheco said the world’s energy transition to stop climate change will take copper demand from the current 25 million tonnes per year to just over 31 million tonnes in 2032. This means the world would need to build eight projects the size of BHP’s Escondida in Chile, the world’s largest copper mine, over the next eight years. 

Source: elements.visualcapitalist.com

The World Bank estimates that to meet the Paris Accord goal of keeping global warming below 2 degrees will require 3 billion tonnes of new critical minerals, something which was hardly mentioned at last month's chaotic COP27 in Egypt, where the final text mentions emissions reductions through "low-emission" energy alongside renewable energy, raising concerns this will allow for more continued use of gas, which often has lower emissions than coal and oil, but still releases carbon dioxide when burned. Despite all the warnings, the world did not prepare itself for the complexity of supplying the transition to a green economy. For instance, for the growing lithium-ion battery requirements the world will need to bring into operation another 300 lithium mines, the equivalent of a 965% increase in lithium demand by 2050.

World population reached 8 billion last month, and a staggering statistic is that this year 5.3 billion mobile phones will be thrown away, according to the International Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) forum. "People tend not to realise that all these seemingly insignificant items have a lot of value and together at a global level represent massive volumes," WEEE director general Pascal Leroy said. Most smartphones carry roughly 80% of the stable elements on the periodic table.

Breakdown of critical metals in a smartphone
Source: University of Birmingham

Another staggering statistic- there are an estimated 16 billion mobile phones worldwide, and in Europe almost a third are no longer in use. The WEEE says its research shows the "mountain" of electrical and electronic waste - from washing machines and toasters to tablet computers and global positioning system (GPS) devices - will grow to 74 million tonnes a year by 2030. Magdalena Charytanowicz, of the WEEE, said: "These devices offer many important resources that can be used in the production of new electronic devices or other equipment, such as wind turbines, electric car batteries or solar panels - all crucial for the green, digital transition to low-carbon societies."

Just over 17% of the world's e-waste is properly recycled - but the United Nations International Telecommunication Union has set a target to raise that to 30% by next year. However there are enormous challenges in recycling the tiny amounts of critical metals in WEEE and mineral processing will be at the forefront of these efforts, with the aim of achieving a totally circular economy.

There will be much to discuss next June in Falmouth at Sustainable Minerals '23 and if you are involved in any aspects of the processing of critical minerals we would certainly like your input.

#SustainableMinerals23
@barrywills