Further to the recent postings on climate change there is a very thought provoking article in the journal Science of the Total Environment by Lillo and Oyarzun.
The authors highlight that we currently face a public debate that at least in part has become bitter and somewhat ideological. On one side stand those who mildly or strongly oppose the mere notion of man-induced climate change. On the other there is a strong faction that in its extreme side freely speaks in terms of a near-future 'doomsday'. In the middle stands a community (which includes myself) that would really want to see a sound discussion and actual proofs going beyond climate modelling.
To geologists, climate change is not the exception but the norm. There is not a 'standard climate' to start with, so change would be the least one could expect, either in the short or long term.
It would be naive to think that modern industrialised societies play no part in climate change but similarly the use of a single (such as CO2) or just a few parameters to understand climate seems over-simplistic. Earth is an extremely complex planet and an often overlooked but critical part of the analysis is to look at the interplay between variables. No variable on its own can fully explain everything, and data should be carefully analysed before grand conclusions are reached.
Most of the attention has focused on greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, a narrow vision that fails to consider other potentially (short-term) disruptive climate scenarios, such as those that could be induced by the oceans' role in climate change, and volcanic eruptions.
The full article can be downloaded from ScienceDirect.
Saturday, 28 March 2009
Australian Broker Sees Light at the End of the Tunnel
In his 2009 conference market update at Australia’s RIU Explorers Conference, Patersons Securities Ltd’s head of research Mark Simpson painted a picture where things could well get a little worse before turning around for the better.
There was a perception, he told delegates, that the world had slipped into depression as opposed to just a recession, with the most telling factor perhaps being the number of jobs lost in the mining industry. In January alone, the sector collectively shed at least 4,440 Australian employees, with the biggest individual culprit being BHP Billiton Ltd, which laid off some 3,100 workers at operations in Western Australia (namely the Ravensthorpe nickel laterite disaster, which claimed 1,800 victims), Queensland (coal — 1,100) and South Australia (the Olympic Dam operation — 200).
This was followed by Rio Tinto Ltd (which cut 616 jobs), the publicly-listed Xstrata (379) and OZ Minerals Ltd (205). Then there was the fact that just about every economic commentary going forward predicted negative growth, with “horrendous” figures coming out of Japan, Germany “on its knees” and all the other major economies effectively heading into recession.
“The IMF’s latest numbers say that the advanced economies of the world essentially will grow at a negative 2% this year, and then a marginal recovery into next year,” Simpson observed. “And what we are seeing is that this economic view; focusing on this year, is turning into headlines about depression. How can you be optimistic when every paper you open, every TV station you turn to, is telling you that it can only get worse?”
“Well, essentially, I think that we are in uncharted territory — we are in a period when unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli are being pumped at the problem.”
The full article is in Gold & Minerals Gazette, March 2009 (p.27)
There was a perception, he told delegates, that the world had slipped into depression as opposed to just a recession, with the most telling factor perhaps being the number of jobs lost in the mining industry. In January alone, the sector collectively shed at least 4,440 Australian employees, with the biggest individual culprit being BHP Billiton Ltd, which laid off some 3,100 workers at operations in Western Australia (namely the Ravensthorpe nickel laterite disaster, which claimed 1,800 victims), Queensland (coal — 1,100) and South Australia (the Olympic Dam operation — 200).
This was followed by Rio Tinto Ltd (which cut 616 jobs), the publicly-listed Xstrata (379) and OZ Minerals Ltd (205). Then there was the fact that just about every economic commentary going forward predicted negative growth, with “horrendous” figures coming out of Japan, Germany “on its knees” and all the other major economies effectively heading into recession.
“The IMF’s latest numbers say that the advanced economies of the world essentially will grow at a negative 2% this year, and then a marginal recovery into next year,” Simpson observed. “And what we are seeing is that this economic view; focusing on this year, is turning into headlines about depression. How can you be optimistic when every paper you open, every TV station you turn to, is telling you that it can only get worse?”
“Well, essentially, I think that we are in uncharted territory — we are in a period when unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli are being pumped at the problem.”
The full article is in Gold & Minerals Gazette, March 2009 (p.27)
Tuesday, 24 March 2009
What is the SME afraid of?
I am intrigued by a posting on http://blogs.mining.com/. The headline is :
“SME demands an apology from I THINK MINING
Written by Jack Caldwell on March 9th, 2009
SME has said they will not work or cooperate with InfoMine unless I say sorry for what I wrote in this blog about the SME conference. Now I have personally and privately e-mailed many a discussion with Dave Kanagy on what I wrote and we are on friendly terms. So no issue there. “
That’s as far as it goes though, as the link to I Think Mining is broken, and the posting appears to have been removed.
Jack’s postings on his blog are merely criticisms of some of the papers presented at the SME in Denver last month so I find it disturbing that an organisation such as SME should threaten InfoMine in this way.
Large events such as SME and IMPC should be open to free criticism and debate. I have personally criticised SME and IMPC papers in the past (see my comments on the Turkish IMPC for example).
We actively invite criticism of MEI Conferences, and publish all comments, no matter how adverse (good example at www.min-eng.com/appliedmineralogy/reps/5.html). Receiving feedback, whether it is good or bad, and acting on it, is the only way to improve the service we provide.
Come on SME, your shoulders should be broad enough to take criticism!!
“SME demands an apology from I THINK MINING
Written by Jack Caldwell on March 9th, 2009
SME has said they will not work or cooperate with InfoMine unless I say sorry for what I wrote in this blog about the SME conference. Now I have personally and privately e-mailed many a discussion with Dave Kanagy on what I wrote and we are on friendly terms. So no issue there. “
That’s as far as it goes though, as the link to I Think Mining is broken, and the posting appears to have been removed.
Jack’s postings on his blog are merely criticisms of some of the papers presented at the SME in Denver last month so I find it disturbing that an organisation such as SME should threaten InfoMine in this way.
Large events such as SME and IMPC should be open to free criticism and debate. I have personally criticised SME and IMPC papers in the past (see my comments on the Turkish IMPC for example).
We actively invite criticism of MEI Conferences, and publish all comments, no matter how adverse (good example at www.min-eng.com/appliedmineralogy/reps/5.html). Receiving feedback, whether it is good or bad, and acting on it, is the only way to improve the service we provide.
Come on SME, your shoulders should be broad enough to take criticism!!
Saturday, 21 March 2009
Copperbelt memories of Ireland's greatest rugby player
In the crowd today at Cardiff's Millennium Stadium, when a team led by Brian O'Driscoll ended Ireland's 61-year grand slam drought by beating Wales 17-15, was 83-year old Jack Kyle (pictured left).
Until today, Ireland had won only one grand slam, in 1948. The surviving captain of that side, Karl Mullen, attributes that success in no small way to the genius of Jack Kyle, the fly-half voted the greatest Ireland player in history.
I wonder how many ex-Copperbelt metallurgists remember Jackie Kyle for different reasons. After retiring from rugby he emigrated to Africa, and between 1966 and 2000 was a consultant at the Nchanga Hospital in Chingola, Zambia. Our fondest memory is that he confirmed the imminent birth of Amanda, who was born in Chingola in 1972.
Tuesday, 17 March 2009
Zambian Copperbelt Problems
My mineral processing career started on the Zambian Copperbelt, so it is really sad to hear the news of closures of great mines such as Mufulira and Nkana. Glencore has indicated that they will start the mines again once the copper price reaches $5500 per tonne, so there is a long way to go, the copper price yesterday being around $3700/tonne.
So let's hope that Metal Bulletin's forecast of an upturn later in the year comes to fruition.
So let's hope that Metal Bulletin's forecast of an upturn later in the year comes to fruition.
Thursday, 12 March 2009
Carbon Emissions
I have had an exchange of emails with Prof. Ian Plimer of University of Adelaide (see March 6th entry).His controversial views on carbon dioxide emissions are shortly to be published in a book - Heaven and Earth.
As editor of a peer-reviewed scientific journal for the past 21 years, I have seen quite a bit of bad science, and have developed a high degree of scepticism towards unsubstantiated theories and conclusions. I have always suspected that the claim that climate change is man-made is dubious, and not based on solid evidence, and Prof. Plimer's article in Materials World seems to provide clear evidence to counter this claim.
I remember when I was at University in the ‘60s that we were about to enter a new ice age, as the world had been cooling since the beginning of the century. Temperatures started to rise shortly after that, but as Prof. Plimer points out, there has been only a 0.75C rise in temperature since the start of the industrial revolution (although I am also sceptical about the consistency of measurement of these temperatures over such a long period).The media love climate change and carbon footprints, researchers love it because of the highly lucrative grants available and politicians equally love it as it provides good reasons to impose green taxes and restrictions on just about everything, as highlighted by the UK’s plans to turn off lighting on hundreds of miles of motorway despite an admission from the Highways Agency that a small increase in crashes is likely to result! The measure is being introduced primarily to reduce carbon emissions but it will also save the agency several million pounds a year in electricity cost (The Times March 13th). I wonder if the latter could really be the primary reason?
To challenge what are considered to be generally accepted views is tantamount to heresy but carbon emission controls are highly expensive and damaging to industries such as ours. A great website for the pros and cons is at http://climatedebatedaily.com/ and I invite the views of mineral processors and others in the mining industry.
As editor of a peer-reviewed scientific journal for the past 21 years, I have seen quite a bit of bad science, and have developed a high degree of scepticism towards unsubstantiated theories and conclusions. I have always suspected that the claim that climate change is man-made is dubious, and not based on solid evidence, and Prof. Plimer's article in Materials World seems to provide clear evidence to counter this claim.
I remember when I was at University in the ‘60s that we were about to enter a new ice age, as the world had been cooling since the beginning of the century. Temperatures started to rise shortly after that, but as Prof. Plimer points out, there has been only a 0.75C rise in temperature since the start of the industrial revolution (although I am also sceptical about the consistency of measurement of these temperatures over such a long period).The media love climate change and carbon footprints, researchers love it because of the highly lucrative grants available and politicians equally love it as it provides good reasons to impose green taxes and restrictions on just about everything, as highlighted by the UK’s plans to turn off lighting on hundreds of miles of motorway despite an admission from the Highways Agency that a small increase in crashes is likely to result! The measure is being introduced primarily to reduce carbon emissions but it will also save the agency several million pounds a year in electricity cost (The Times March 13th). I wonder if the latter could really be the primary reason?
To challenge what are considered to be generally accepted views is tantamount to heresy but carbon emission controls are highly expensive and damaging to industries such as ours. A great website for the pros and cons is at http://climatedebatedaily.com/ and I invite the views of mineral processors and others in the mining industry.
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